Covid 19 - Modeling - Recent Independent Studies

 

https://github.com/patricknharris/MMCAcovid19.jl/pull/1 

JTMatamals created great package with sufficient parameters for initial usage.
Likely that Covid crisis will continue as it mutates within its relationships with population genetics.
Experimenting on adding additional parameters to cover:

  1. environmental conditions - humidity, temperature, wind speed, aqi, other aerosols
  2. geospatial - density, altitude, local terrain, neighborhood characteristics - city, farm, suburb, etc
  3. guidance policies - social distancing, other mandates, % of population following guidance
  4. genetic mutations - % of current population, at least 3 variants exist, speed of propagation and other factors
    a) the UK variant is 70% greater transmissions
    b) the South African RBM - RNA Bonding Motif - that has replaced one of the vaccine targets
    c) the Netherlands variant (now in LA) - the L452R initial reports suggest that vaccine maybe ineffective
    d) other variants - yet to be named that will be propagating across the populations.


More common epidemiological models include simpler modeling constructs http://epirecip.es/epicookbook/chapters/simple

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